2009 Philadelphia Phillies - Season's Over, Time to Move On

[SunMo]

there are no untouchables.

i think part of the sentiment to be cautious is that Halladay has played in Toronto his whole career.  It's the AL and it's Canada so people aren't quite as sure about him.  but if this was Maddux in his prime, everybody would be saying to give up the farm.

[PhillyPhreak54]

Relax, Pat Gillick is on this motherfarga...

From the Toronto paper...

The Phillies are one of several clubs believed to be interested in acquiring Halladay with the July 31 no-waiver trade deadline 11 days away. Gillick – the former Blue Jays general manager who left in 1994, a year after Toronto drafted Halladay out of Arvada West High School outside Denver – was overheard in the press box discussing the severity of the pitcher's groin ailment with Toronto team physician Ron Taylor.

[Rome]

mds was obviously drinking with munson last night.

[MDS]

mds was on a bagel and 3 hours of sleep and felt like he was going to die

[SunMo]

[PhillyPhreak54]

 

[MDS]

evidently its come down to drabek. if hes included in its a go.

[Rome]

If Drabek is seriously all they're asking for, then goddamn it when's the frigging press conference?

[SunMo]

Drabek, Taylor, Donald, Carrasco is what i think goes

[Rome]

I think your face goes.

[MDS]

corrasco sucks
donald is blocked by utley and jrol
taylor looks like the real deal
drabek could be good, could be a bust, could blow his arm out

roy halladay is the best pitcher in baseball.

4 question marks for an ace. hmmmm.

[ice grillin you]

donald sucks too

that trade is basically drabek and taylor

and no dominic brown

get it done

[SunMo]

a lot of people who know shtein about shtein say that Knapp can be just as good or better than Drabek, he's just younger

[ice grillin you]

interesting buster olney perspective.....



Jays must trade Halladay now

A whole bunch of baseball people traveled to Toronto this weekend to watch Roy Halladay pitch, as Ken Fidlin writes. It's a sure sign of a robust market for Halladay -- a seller's market, perhaps, a market in which the Blue Jays can set a price and stick to it.

But if the folks in the Toronto front office took some time to review the events that followed the 2007 season, they could reach only one conclusion: If they want to make the best possible deal for Halladay, they must trade him in the next 12 days. If they don't make a deal before July 31, they may wind up with much less than what they can get now from the Phillies, Angels or Dodgers.

In the fall of 2007, Johan Santana was 28 years old, four years younger than Halladay is today. Like Halladay, he had one year left on his contract, and like Halladay, he was armed with a no-trade clause, which essentially allowed him to dictate where he would be traded and naturally limited the market for him. His excellence also limited the teams that might have made offers for him to the Twins. Small-market and midmarket teams such as the Marlins and the Indians knew they couldn't afford him, so they didn't get involved in the bidding.

The Twins waited for the bids to improve, but lo and behold, they didn't. A robust market for Santana never developed. Neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox ever fully engaged the Twins because both front offices were reluctant to part with a major package for a pitcher who was on the verge of free agency. The Red Sox and Yankees determined that they didn't want to absorb the double-barreled cost of a prospect and a big-money contract. The Angels and Dodgers were never serious, either.

In the end, this is what the Twins wound up taking for the best pitcher on the planet:

• Carlos Gomez, who in his third year in the big leagues remains a project. At age 23, he is hitting .242 with a .296 on-base percentage. Those numbers could improve, but if they don't, he probably will be a candidate for a non-tender contract in the winter of 2011.

• Philip Humber, who was taken off the Twins' 40-man roster earlier this season after allowing 11 hits and three walks in 4.1 innings.

• Kevin Mulvey, who recently was summoned from Triple-A Rochester, where he went 3-6 with a 3.93 ERA.

• Deolis Guerra, a right-hander who is now 20 years old and struggling in Double-A.

There is still time for Gomez, Mulvey and Guerra to develop, but right now, it does not appear that the Twins got even one rock-solid piece for Santana.

The consensus among the peers of Minnesota GM Bill Smith was that he had been placed in an incredibly difficult position during his first months on the job and that in hindsight, he probably waited too long to make a deal. The Yankees briefly offered pitcher Phil Hughes in a package in December of 2007, and in retrospect, rival executives said that probably was the best deal that Smith could've made. "But it was a tough call," one AL official said. "I mean, you're trading a Cy Young Award winner, and you're thinking that you should get more than that. But everything was working against him."

If the Jays wait, Halladay's value will steadily decline for all the reasons Santana's value dropped. If the Jays wait, circumstances will impede Halladay's value. If he's traded in the winter, rather than within the next 12 days, the team that acquires him will have Halladay for only one pennant race rather than two. He'll be 33 next season rather than 32 at a time when teams are increasingly leery of age. He'll be just one season away from free agency rather than two.

So long as Brian Cashman remains in power as GM of the Yankees, they almost certainly will not bid seriously for Halladay in a trade because of his impending free agency and what it will cost them in prospects. The Red Sox love Halladay as everybody loves Halladay, but they won't overpay to get him for 2010 because they already will face a contractual decision on Josh Beckett, who will be eligible for free agency after next season. They have no idea how well Daisuke Matsuzaka will pitch for them in the years ahead, which will make them less inclined to consider trading Clay Buchholz.

The Mets would love to have Halladay, but they don't have the kind of prospects the Jays are seeking (just as the Twins were never enamored with the Mets' prospects in a possible Santana trade until it was clear that the Mets were the best available option). The Dodgers won't want to part with Clayton Kershaw or Chad Billingsley now or in the near future, and the Angels don't have premium pitching prospects at the top of their farm system. The White Sox and Cubs might re-engage in talks with the Jays during the winter, but the White Sox already are focused on getting younger pitchers, and the Cubs may soon have to make that a priority, given the age of the club.

Virtually all the small-market and midmarket teams won't consider proposing a Halladay deal because of the enormousness of his next contract. As a free agent, Halladay probably will be able to get $15 million to $20 million a season, and although his trade value might sink, his ability will make his value as a free agent recession-proof. If Halladay becomes a free agent in the fall of 2010, that's when the Red Sox and the Yankees will bid aggressively.

The Jays don't want to be in the same position the Twins were in. If they let those trade talks drag on, their entire offseason will be filled with conversation about how and why the Jays are dealing their best player. (The Padres can testify to how this can drag down a team's ticket sales after the winter-long Jake Peavy discussions.)

If the Jays know they won't be able to re-sign Halladay after the 2010 season -- and the guess here is that Halladay already has indicated to the Jays, respectfully and without any demands, that he won't stick around if the team won't spend money -- they should swallow hard and make the best deal they can right now. Most likely, that will be with the Phillies.

Because history tells us that the quality of the offers they get for Halladay will only go down.

[SD_Eagle5]

The best 4 prospects in the Phils organization are Drabek, Brown, Taylor, Knapp. Knapp may have the greatest upside, he's only 19, is 6'5 230, and already has a good 97 mph fastball. Carrasco, Donald, Savery, Marson, Carpenter, basticho, d'arnaud, etc. are very solid prospects that have a chance to develop into good players.