ncaa tourney yahoo pick em

PoopyfaceMcGee · March 29, 2006, 12:27:44 PM

Quote from: Wingspan on March 29, 2006, 12:24:03 PM
we need a math geek to figure out the actual odds of guessing the bracket correctly.

It all depends on how you want to handicap the games. Do you want to assume that the winner of each game is random, or do something based on the difference in seed?

ice grillin you · March 29, 2006, 12:29:27 PM

how about we call it infintismal and stop the madness

Wingspan · March 29, 2006, 12:30:04 PM

Quote from: FFatPatt on March 29, 2006, 12:27:44 PM
Quote from: Wingspan on March 29, 2006, 12:24:03 PM
we need a math geek to figure out the actual odds of guessing the bracket correctly.

It all depends on how you want to handicap the games. Do you want to assume that the winner of each game is random, or do something based on the difference in seed?

i was thinking going off of what rjs said...a straight 50/50 guess on each game, with no prior knowledge of the teams. but maybe you have to assume some strength of #1-4 seeds in the 1st round or so.

phattymatty · March 29, 2006, 12:48:12 PM

QuoteMike Breen, a mathematician at the American Mathematical Society in Providence, R.I., said the chances of being one of the people who correctly picked the Final Four in ESPN.com's contest this year were about 1 in 750,000. Last year, he said, roughly 1 in 700 brackets included the correct four teams.

PoopyfaceMcGee · March 29, 2006, 01:13:31 PM

Based on this year's tourney, here are the numbers.

I assumed...

The % chance of a 1 or 2 seed winning in the first round was 85%.
The % chance of a 3 or 4 seed winning in the first round was 70%.
The % chance of a 5 or 6 seed winning in the first round was 55%.
The % chance of a 1 seed winning over the 8/9 seed in the second round was 60%.
The % chance of a 2 seed winning over the 7/10 seed in the second round was 55%.
Every matchup from the Sweet 16 on is a coin flip.

The odds of predicting the entire bracket correctly, all the way through the championship game are 24,985,698,160,000,000 to 1, or a 0.000000000000004002289604% shot.

rjs246 · March 29, 2006, 01:14:31 PM

Nerd.

SunMo · March 29, 2006, 01:16:59 PM

"Never tell me the odds!"

PoopyfaceMcGee · April 02, 2006, 09:30:07 AM

It's down to Phreak (if Florida wins) vs. TiconderogaSentinels (if UCLA wins)

PhillyPhreak54 · April 02, 2006, 11:16:04 AM

Go Florida and that ugly sumbitch Noah!

I've won my other two pools...now I just need FLA to hook me up.

PhillyPhreak54 · April 04, 2006, 01:40:10 AM

I win.

Do I post my address on the Yahoo site, IGY?

PoopyfaceMcGee · April 04, 2006, 07:57:41 AM

Phreak... you decide...

Do you want your money in Preperation H coupons, 40 $0.25 checks, or a nice crispy $10 bill*?

*which I will have wiped my ass with

P.S. I can't believe my crappy bracket was in the 94th percentile overall.

MadMarchHare · April 04, 2006, 08:19:40 AM

Phreak, I think you need to post it on the Yahoo site. I believe he's got his extended family playing, most of whom don't post here.

PoopyfaceMcGee · April 04, 2006, 08:23:47 AM

I'm actually kind of glad I didn't win... because I don't want to give all you fruits my address.

rjs246 · April 04, 2006, 08:25:07 AM

Quote from: FFatPatt on April 04, 2006, 08:23:47 AM
I'm actually kind of glad I didn't win... because I don't want to give all you fruits my address.

Amen.

PhillyPhreak54 · April 04, 2006, 09:03:26 AM

Quote from: FFatPatt on April 04, 2006, 07:57:41 AM
Phreak... you decide...

Do you want your money in Preperation H coupons, 40 $0.25 checks, or a nice crispy $10 bill*?

*which I will have wiped my ass with

P.S. I can't believe my crappy bracket was in the 94th percentile overall.

12-pack of beer. Is that an option?

A crispy 10 spot without the feces would be just fine. I don't have roids so the prep-H wouldn't help.